{"id":13299,"date":"2026-09-29T09:32:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T12:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/?post_type=statement&p=13299"},"modified":"2026-09-29T09:32:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T12:32:09","slug":"2026-brazilian-elections-imperialist-threat-and-an-internationalist-warning","status":"publish","type":"statement","link":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/statement\/2026-brazilian-elections-imperialist-threat-and-an-internationalist-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Brazilian Elections: Imperialist Threat and an Internationalist Warning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

September 29, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2026 Brazilian general elections will take place amid intense political, economic, and geopolitical rivalry. The election results will have consequences that extend beyond Brazil\u2019s borders and will impact the balance of power in Latin America and the ability of the region\u2019s peoples to defend their sovereignty in the face of the imperialist offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the International Peoples’ Assembly and ALBA Movements, it is essential that grassroots organizations around the world follow this process with close attention, solidarity, and an internationalist spirit, and remain vigilant to denounce imperialist and far-right attacks on the election and its results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first round of the elections will take place on October 4, and, where necessary, the second round will be held on October 25. The president and vice president, as well as governors, senators, and federal, state, and district representatives, will be elected. More than 158 million voters are eligible to participate in the election, including 1 million residing abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imperialist Advancement and Interference<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Brazilian elections are taking place amid an intensifying imperialist offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the U.S. seeks to reinforce its economic, political, military, and cultural hegemony. Against this backdrop, Brazilian officials and international experts continue to warn of U.S. interference in these elections. Taking on various forms, this interference includes economic pressure on Brazilian political decisions, which has become particularly evident with the tariff hike announced by the Trump administration to take effect in 2025; open political support from foreign officials for far-right sectors of Brazilian politics, such as candidate Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s visit to the White House<\/a> in May of this year; the use of major digital platforms and social media, which, can amplify certain political content as they are controlled by private companies,; and the psychological dimension of this offensive, in which the threat of sanctions, tariffs, isolation, or other external measures can instill fear and insecurity, seeking to influence electoral perceptions and behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several facts already in the public domain highlight this interference. In July 2026, Brazilian authorities denounced an attempt to send Trump administration officials<\/a> to the country to cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral system, while the U.S. government stated that the purpose of the visit would be to discuss the elections and other issues. Another case that recently came to light was that among the 52 demands presented by the Trump administration<\/a> in negotiations to reverse the tariffs imposed on Brazil in 2025 was a guarantee that \u201cpolitical dissidents\u201d would be allowed to run in the 2026 elections. The Brazilian government rejected this demand and stated that political, judicial, and sovereignty issues were not on the negotiating table. Added to this are the aforementioned tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products<\/a>, as well as pressure related to strategic sectors of the economy and natural resources like rare earth metals, and conflicts surrounding Brazil\u2019s regulatory sovereignty over digital platforms and major technology companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump administration\u2019s interference in the political and electoral processes of Argentina, Honduras, Peru, Panama, El Salvador, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile, and other Latin American countries reveals a regional strategy of economic, political, and diplomatic pressure designed to favor forces aligned with Washington\u2019s interests and limit the sovereignty of the Latin American peoples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2026, this offensive took on an even more explicit regional dimension, as evidenced by the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and Congresswoman and First Lady Cilia Flores on January 3, 2026\u2014both of whom remain illegally detained in the United States. Trump recently stated at the UN General Assembly that this policy of U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere simultaneously strengthens a regional coalition of governments aligned (read: far-right) with Washington. We cannot treat U.S. interference as a one-off incident; we must monitor it, denounce it, and be prepared to respond collectively to new forms of pressure, destabilization, and intervention before, during, and after the Brazilian elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Political Contest Within Brazil<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Domestically, the Brazilian elections are taking place against a backdrop of deep polarization and social fragmentation. In the presidential race, there is a confrontation between the camp led by Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, comprising a broad alliance of democratic sectors ranging from the left to the center, and the far right associated with Bolsonarism, represented by candidate Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, Jair\u2019s son. Voting intention polls indicate a technical tie between them, both in the first and second rounds, meaning that the difference in voting intentions is small enough that, given the margin of error, it is not possible to state with certainty that either candidate is ahead. This scenario mirrors the split observed in the 2018 and 2022 elections (when the margin was just 1% or 2 million votes in Lula\u2019s favor). In addition to these two, there are 11 other candidates, including 7 from the right (who together account for 17% of voting intentions) and 4 from the left (who collectively account for 1% of voting intentions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lula\u2019s voters are concentrated among the poorest (earning up to two minimum wages), women, Black people, people over 60, and residents of Brazil\u2019s Northeast region. Bolsonaro\u2019s voters are mostly men, white people, and middle-class workers (with incomes above five minimum wages). The \u201cabstention factor,\u201d meanwhile, accounts for 25% of voters and belongs to the left\u2019s natural social base (poor workers), but these voters demonstrate a certain apathy and weariness with political polarization and are still searching for a \u201cthird way.\u201d Winning over this sector is vital for victory in the presidential election. At the same time, it is worth remembering that the race for the presidency represents only one part of a broader battle over the balance of power in the National Congress, state governments, and state and Federal District legislative assemblies\u2014which currently have right-wing majorities and are expected to remain so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A key feature of Bolsonarism is its unconditional alignment with the international far right, particularly the Trump administration, the U.S., and with Zionism. Furthermore, its supporters advocate for the rollback of labor and social rights; privatization; mass incarceration; repressive policing; the liberalization of deforestation; and the encouragement of violence against popular and left-wing movements and organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supporters of Lula and the Workers\u2019 Party are those who view social programs positively and who historically make up the progressive camp; however, this does not correspond to an organized social base. It is also worth noting that despite his historical importance, Lula today faces difficulties in the political coordination of his campaign and the perception that his candidacy lacks proposals for the future, limiting itself to a defense of \u201cinstitutionality\u201d that no longer inspires an exhausted society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil is going through a period of intense political and institutional instability that converges in the current electoral process and in the left-versus-right contest. To understand this phenomenon, we must go back to 2013, when the spark for systemic instability\u2014which still holds the country\u2019s future hostage\u2014was ignited. That year, what began as a protest over bus fares morphed into an \u201canti-system\u201d fury that eroded the legitimacy of political institutions and paved the way for democratic erosion. Related events include a coup in 2016 against a democratically elected president, Dilma Rousseff, and the political and illegal imprisonment of Lula in 2018. It was a year in which he was barred from running for office and Jair Bolsonaro was ultimately elected. Today, Brazil is grappling with the resulting institutional crisis, facing a right wing capable of mobilizing the streets and three branches of government operating in a state of hostility, fueling a polarization that has turned the country into a testing ground for the far right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThus, the 2026 election must be understood beyond the immediate electoral outcome. The ability to defend national sovereignty, social rights, democracy, and popular organizations will also depend on the organized strength of Brazilian society and the capacity to build a balance of power capable of sustaining the gains achieved, including in the aftermath of a possible victory for Lula.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the 2026 election must be understood beyond the immediate electoral result. At stake is the future of the balance of power in Latin America and the possibility of opening or closing a political space that favors the reorganization and strengthening of the working class and grassroots organizations. However, building this space will be even more difficult in the face of a potential advance by a repressive Bolsonarist agenda, which tends to restrict the conditions for organization and forms part of the far-right bloc in the Americas and around the world. Therefore, the challenge for the Brazilian left lies in its ability to sustain its gains and advance in the defense of national sovereignty, social rights, and democracy; this will depend on organized strength and the capacity to achieve and defend these gains, including in the aftermath of the October elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Call for Internationalist Monitoring<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In light of this scenario, the International Peoples’ Assembly and ALBA Movements call on grassroots organizations, unions, political parties, movements, collectives, and progressive forces around the world to closely monitor the Brazilian electoral process through:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Monitoring the electoral process and combating disinformation:<\/strong> monitoring before, during, and after the elections, paying close attention to attempts at destabilization, threats to democratic order, political violence, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to question or subvert the election results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Denouncing any form of imperialist interference:<\/strong> monitor and publicly denounce any attempt at foreign interference that seeks to influence the sovereign choices of the Brazilian people or to use economic, political, technological, or media tools to intervene in the national process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Solidarity with Brazilian grassroots organizations:<\/strong> maintain communication with Brazilian organizations within the IPA and ALBA, monitor the assessments produced by these movements and grassroots organizations, and be prepared to respond to calls for solidarity in the face of any attempt at a democratic breakdown or attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2026 Brazilian elections are not just about Brazil. What is at stake also involves the future of Latin America in the face of the imperialist offensive, the sovereignty of the peoples, and the building of relations of solidarity and cooperation among the Global South. On election day, we must stand with the Brazilian people, monitoring the process, defending national sovereignty, and remaining vigilant against any attempt to thwart the will expressed at the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Internationalism is the most beautiful banner of our socialist tradition, and it will be fundamental to victory and resistance in Brazil.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

International Peoples\u2019 Assembly and ALBA Movements<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":13300,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":true},"tags":[13,25],"statement-type":[256],"class_list":["post-13299","statement","type-statement","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-anti-imperialism","tag-democracy","statement-type-region-statement"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/statement\/13299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/statement"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/statement"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13299"},{"taxonomy":"statement-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipa-aip.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/statement-type?post=13299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}